Month: January 2015

Roundup of Aerospace Forecasts and Predictions, 2015

Posted on by Shawn Maguire

aerospace1Aerospace industry sales will increase 5.3% in 2015, with civil aircraft sales being the greatest contributor to $79.8B in revenue this year. Related aerospace products and services are expected to net $33.6B and missiles, $20.2B.These and many other insights are from the latest roundup of aerospace forecasts and predictions.

Key take-aways from the roundup include the following:

  1. US manufacturing production will grow 4.0% in 2015, led by housing starts at 29% and aerospace products and parts at 10%. High-tech industrial production, which accounts for just 5% of total production, will grow significantly faster than the rest of manufacturing, Manufacturers’ Alliance for Productivity and Innovation (MAPI) predicts. While non-high-tech production will grow 3.2% in 2014, 3.8% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, production of computers and electronic products will rise 4.7% in 2014, 8.5% in 2015 and 10.4% in 2016.  Source: Industry Week, MAPI Predicts ‘Broad-based Growth’ for US Manufacturing
    MAPI Forecast for MFG Production 2014-2016
  2. The US Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) estimates that the country’s aerospace industry sales will grow by 5.3% in 2015. Civil aircraft sales will continue to contribute the greatest share, with the AIA forecasting sales in this category will top $79.8B in 2015. Military aircraft sales will contribute $54.5B and space sales $52.3B. Related aerospace products and services are expected to net about $33.6B and missiles $20.2B. AIA is forecasting aerospace industry profits of $25.5B in 2014, up from $22.2B in 2013. Source: Flightglobal, US Aerospace Sales to Grow in 2015
    Est Aerospace Sales 2014-2015
  1. The global business jet market is predicted to be worth $33.8B by 2020. The global business jet market was valued at $20.9B in 2013 and is expected to reach $33.8B by the end of 2020, attaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.86% in the forecast period. Source: Research and Markets, Global Business Jet Market – Forecasts, Trends & Analysis to 2014 – 2020
  1. COMAC (China), Irkut and Mitsubishi all planning new jet deliveries entering service in 2015. The Airbus A320neo, the New Engine Option, and the Bombardier C Series, are scheduled to enter service in 2015. Each is powered by the Pratt & Whitney (PW) Geared Turbo Fan (GTF), a 20-year research-and-development gamble that brings PW back into the arena as a major player in single-aisle airplane powerplants. COMAC’s C919 (China), the challenger to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families, is in development and so is the equivalent Irkut MC-21 (Russia), but neither will take to the skies in 2015. The Mitsubishi MRJ90, Japan’s first commercial airliner since the 1960s, is set to enter flight-testing in 2015.  Source: CNN, 2015: The Year Ahead in Aviation
  1. Lockheed Martin predicted to dominate fighter/attack aircraft production in the 2015-19 time. Accelerating production of the F-35 for U.S. and international customers, plus remaining F-16 deliveries will give Lockheed Martin a dominant share of the combat-aircraft market. After 14 years of development, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is expected to become operational with the U.S. Marine Corps in 2015—but aircraft modifications and software testing could push it closer to December rather than the desired July date. Initial operational capability with the U.S. Air Force in August 2016 also is threatened by software development and maintenance training. Source: Aviation Week, 2015 Delivery Forecasts

Fighter Attack Aircraft Market Share 2015-19

  1. The number of consumer drones in use globally is expected to reach one million for the first time in 2015. Deloitte predicts a steady increase in the popularity of non-military drones (also known as unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs) costing £125 ($188US) or more, with the number in use globally reaching the one million mark for the first time in 2015. Over 300,000 units are expected to be sold in 2015, worth between £125m ($188US) and £250m ($376US).  Source: Deloitte, Drones: High-Profile and Niche
  2. Top technology trends for MRO sector in 2015 include additive manufacturing and wearable technologies. The aerospace and defense sector is already a huge trend setter in terms of adopting additive manufacturing, having contributed more than 10% to the industry’s $2.2B global revenue in 2012. Rolls-Royce and GE Aviation have already announced that they plan to fabricate parts for aircraft engines that are lighter and faster to produce through additive manufacturing. In 2015, it will really show its worth in terms of reducing material costs, decreasing labor content, and increasing availability of parts at point of use, having a dramatic impact on the supply chain. 2015 will see major widespread use of wearables in commercial aviation MRO. In 2014 wearables promised much but delivered little in terms of practicalities. Gartner has predicted that the wearable market will be worth $10B by 2016 so if this respected analyst group is right, things need to get a shift on in 2015. In civil aviation the business need is there and crying out for wearable technology. Witness the example of Japan Airlines with its use of Google Glass in the maintenance process. The glasses are worn by engineers working around the aircraft on the tarmac. Images of the aircraft are sent to maintenance specialists for assessment who then feed any issues they see back to the engineer on the ground. Work is completed promptly, can be assessed in real time and all information is recorded to assess further issues down the line.  Source: MRO Network, Top Five Tech Trends in 2015

Key Take-Aways From IDC Manufacturing Insights’ Supply Chain 2015 Predictions

Posted on by iBase-t Experts

integration-page-imageInternational Data Corporation (IDC) Manufacturing Insights recently published 10 decision imperatives for worldwide supply chains in the study IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Manufacturing Supply Chain 2015 Predictions by Simon Ellis.  Taken together, these imperatives illustrate how challenging managing supply chains are today and will become through 2018.

Paradoxically the more challenging the supply chain initiative, the greater dependency on optimizing the personal or human aspects of collaboration, accelerated and aided by technology.  An example of this is the second decision imperative that predicts customer centricity will require higher standards for supply chains, motivating 75% of manufacturers to invest in customer-facing technologies.  Of the ten imperatives, this one shows how critical it is for manufacturers to keep striving to optimize their customers’ experiences while continually improving supply chain operations.

The following are IDC Manufacturing Insights’ Supply Chain 2015 Decision Imperatives:

Decision Imperative 1: By 2016, 80% of Manufacturers Will Be Actively Employing Commerce Networks in Their Supply Chains to Facilitate Demand, Supply, and the Development of New Product.

Decision Imperative 2: In 2015, Customer Centricity Requires Higher Standards for Supply Chains, Motivating 75% of Manufacturers to Invest in Customer-Facing Technologies.

Decision Imperative 3: By 2017, 50% of Manufacturers Will Explore the Viability of Micrologistics Networks to Enable the Promise of Accelerated Delivery for Select Products and Customers.

Decision Imperative 4: By 2018, 75% of Manufacturers are Coordinating Enterprisewide Planning Activities Under the Umbrella of Rapid Integrated Business Planning.

Decision Imperative 5: By 2016, 70% of Global Discrete Manufacturers Will Offer Smart Connected Products, Driving the Need for New Digital Supply Chain Capabilities.

Decision Imperative 6: In 2015, Half of All Manufacturers Will Be Employing Supply Chain Design and Modeling Technologies on Both the Demand and Supply Sides of Their Supply Chains.

Decision Imperative 7: By 2017, 80% of Manufacturers Will Be Re-Evaluating the Applicability of Robotics and Logistics Automation Technology Within Their Warehousing Networks.

Decision Imperative 8: By the End of 2018, 90% of Manufacturers Will Have Diversified Their Supply Networks to Meet Both Emerging Market Growth and Risk-Mitigation Requirements.

Decision Imperative 9: By 2017, 75% of Manufacturers Will Have Adopted Global Trade Management Technologies to Facilitate Compliance and Eliminate Latency Resulting from Poor Regulatory Knowledge.

Decision Imperative 10: By 2016, 30% of Manufacturers Will Invest Substantially in Increasing the Visibility and Analysis of Information Exchange and Business Processes.

Bottom line: Taken together, the ten imperatives provide a roadmap to manufacturers for managing their value chains in turbulent, challenging conditions.

Top 10 Blog Posts For 2014 Reflects Strategic Role Of Quality Management

Posted on by iBase-t Experts

qualityThe variety of topics that comprise the most popular iBase-t blog posts for 2014 reflect the fascinating nature of aerospace, defense and complex manufacturing today. Our ten most popular posts also reflect how important all facets of manufacturing execution systems (MES), supplier quality management, and manufacturing operations management (MOM) solutions are to complex manufacturers.

The top ten most popular iBase-t blog posts for 2014 are:

  • The Top 100 Aerospace Companies Of 2014 – Based on a recent study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), this blog post provides insights into leading aerospace companies and their financial performance in 2014. Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Finmeccanica, United Technologies (UTC), GE, Safran and Rolls-Royce are the top ten aerospace companies worldwide based on this PWC analysis.  Please see the blog post for the links to the report and how you can get access to the full data set.
  • Gartner’s Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2015 – Based on the top ten strategic technology trends Gartner presented at their annual Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2014 held in Orlando during October, 2014, this post provides a summary and brief analysis of how analytics will reshape the enterprise in 2015. It also provides an overview of how 3D printing is forecast to reach a tipping point in the next three years, delivering significant benefits to manufacturing.
  • Seven Strategies For Improving Supplier Quality Management – For complex manufacturers, their definition of quality is predicated on how well they stay aligned with the demanding, diverse and unique requirements of their customers while staying in compliance with regulatory requirements. The intent of this blog post is to provide seven key ideas for making supplier quality management a competitive advantage in complex manufacturing.
  • Five Factors Driving A&D Manufacturers To Excel At Total Cost of Quality – Provides an overview of the five most important factors for A&D manufacturers to take into account when calculating the costs of good and bad product quality. Total Cost of Quality (CoQ) is one of the most important quality metrics to A&D manufacturers as it provides insight into how well orchestrated supplier networks, quality management, manufacturing and service are.
  • Framing the Discussion on the Intersection of Manufacturing and Quality Management Systems – In-depth analysis of Standards for Quality Management Systems (QMS), including ISO9001, AS9100 and ISO13485, with specific focus on how they have been evolving over the last three decades in parallel to standards and models for manufacturing systems including ISA95’s Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM) model and MESA’s Manufacturing Execution System (MES) models. This blog post illustrates how the MOM evolution has focused on better scheduling, production, automation, and efficiency, while QMS evolution has focused on repeatability, traceability, documentation, auditability, and corrective action.  This post includes a table that summarizes the cross reference between the PDCA cycle, the clauses of the IS09001/AS9100 standard, and the functionality found in either MOM or EQMS (Enterprise Quality Management System) software to support the requirements.
  • Key Take-Aways From Deloitte’s 2014 Global Aerospace And Defense Industry Outlook – Based on an analysis of Deloitte’s 2014 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook, this blog post provides a summary of key take-aways gleaned from the research. Among the key take-aways include the finding that more fuel-efficient jet designs can deliver a 15% better fuel burn rate, which translates into millions of dollars in operating cost reductions. Deloitte’s research is excellent and worth reading.
  • Does Commercial Software Fit Your Manufacturing Operations Management Style? – Provides insightful analysis of IYNO Advisors group’s 2014 survey of Project Manufacturing Issues and Trends. The survey compiled answers from over 250 companies serving both commercial and defense sectors and provides insights into how integrated information systems are critical to obtaining a better level of coordination and visibility among internal departments and achieving improved business results.
  • Key Takeaways from Accenture’s 2014 Product Lifecycle Management Survey In Aerospace And Defense – Analysis of Accenture’s latest study of Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) adoption in aerospace and defense published in June, 2014 shows how a strategic mindset about PLM is critical for getting long-term results. The key take-aways of the study also show the rapid adoption of analytics and business intelligence, which are the cornerstones of manufacturing intelligence, in the enterprise.
  • Strategies for Improving Quality Management in Manufacturing – Part I – The bottom line is that manufacturers who choose to incrementally add quality to their operations invite mediocrity, while those that choose to ingrain quality management at an enterprise level, deep into the DNA of their business models profitably excel. Learn more about the strategies manufacturers are using for improving quality management from this post.