Overall, the aerospace manufacturing industry is beginning to ramp up in 2016. In last year’s Roundup of Aerospace Forecasts and Predictions, 2015, the experts were more optimistic about the aerospace growth, but in reality, the growth has been slow. It seems we are in the midst of a transition phase and will see significant growth starting late this year or next year. Provided below is a compilation of several different aerospace forecasts and predictions for 2016.
Aerospace manufacturing and related production will probably not increase until after 2016.
The production ramp-up in the aerospace industry has been disappointingly slow in 2015. Since most airplane deliveries are to foreign buyers, the decline in commodity prices, slowdown in China, and strong dollar have hurt deliveries, despite huge backlogs.
Source: US Industrial Outlook, MAPI
Aerospace products and parts production will be unchanged in 2016 before growing 3% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.
Defense aerospace contracts are long term with military austerity likely longer term. Defense aerospace shipments contributed to approximately one-third of the total industry (in current dollars), and increased by 4% in the three months ending December 2015. Civilian aircraft and parts shipments also rose 4% in this time frame. With an import to export ratio of 0.5, aerospace is the largest net exporter in U.S. manufacturing. Imports increased 6% while exports were up 3% in the fourth quarter of 2015. Because exports are so large relative to imports, the trade surplus was $295 million more positive relative to one year earlier.
Source: Manufacturing Production Growth is Disappointingly Slow, MAPI
Revenues in the global aerospace and defense sector are expected to grow by 3 percent in 2016 after a 0.5 percent decline in 2015.
The rebound will likely be driven by strong passenger traffic, continued demand for commercial aircraft from growing economies like India and China, and an expected recovery in global military spending fueled by tensions in the Middle East. In 2016, an estimated 1,420 large commercial aircraft will be produced – 40.5% more than five years ago.
Source: 2016 Global A&D Outlook, Deloitte
The U.S. aerospace and defense industry is poised to add 39,443 jobs in 2016, an increase of about 3.2% and the first job growth in the sector in five years.
The Pentagon’s plan to add $13 billion to its fiscal 2016 budget will help drive a 3.7% increase in jobs in the defense part of the sector, while low oil prices and strong travel demand should boost employment in the commercial sector by 1.8%.
Source: US Aerospace & Defense Labor Market Study 2016, Deloitte
With a 39.2 percent share in 2014, the US continues to be the largest exporter of commercial aerospace products globally.
France was the second largest exporter, accounting for 18.0 percent of global exports. Despite a decrease in total exports from the US in 2015, gross US aerospace and defense (A&D) sector exports jumped US$5 billion in 2015 with commercial aircraft leading the way. These exports are expected to grow another 3.2 percent in 2016. In addition, the A&D sector was the largest contributor to America’s net exports during the period 2010 through 2015, where the sector accounted for 9.5 percent of total US exports in 2015, rising from its contribution of 7.1 percent in 2010.
Source: US Aerospace and Defense Export Competitiveness, Deloitte
Aerospace manufacturing picks up in the US instead of outsourcing.
Three years ago it looked like everything was heading to China. Now that’s changed. Boeing, working to keep costs to a minimum, has cut back on what it outsources to make its new 787 Dreamliner, moving more of the production in-house. Meanwhile, rival Airbus, along with investment from other foreign companies, is opening a production line plant in Alabama, creating 1,000 new jobs. The first new plane is expected to roll off the line in 2016.
Source: Aerospace Manufacturing Picks up in the US, IndustryWeek
Civil engine production-rate records are set to tumble in 2016.
Propelled by the extraordinary surge in demand for single-aisle aircraft, both CFM International, the General Electric-Snecma joint venture, and Pratt & Whitney are in the midst of executing on, or preparing for record years of production.
Source: Boom Time for Civil Engine Makers, Aviation Week
New aircraft makers are to enter services in 2016 to compete with the established makers.
The threat China’s industry poses to Airbus and Boeing has receded with delays to Comac’s C919, but it has not disappeared. In 2016, Comac’s ARJ21 regional jet will finally enter service, the narrow body C919 will begin flight tests, and development of a long-range widebody aircraft is expected to begin with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp.
The first prototype of Saab’s next-generation JAS 39E Gripen will fly in 2016, keeping pressure on the global fighter market by offering much of the capability of its heavier, costlier European and U.S. rivals, but at a significantly lower operating cost. Dassault’s Rafale will cement its export resurgence with the signature of a 36-aircraft deal with India.
Source: 12 Areas to Keep in Focus in 2016, Aviation Week
Between 2015 and 2036 the number of jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to grow from 3,946 to 5,339, an average of 66 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove older, less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft.
The regional carrier fleet is forecast to decline from 2,144 aircraft in 2015 to 1,961 in 2036 as the fleet shrinks by 21 percent (448 aircraft) between 2015 and 2022. The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is forecast to increase from 781 aircraft in 2015 to 1,114 aircraft in 2036 driven by the growth in freight RTMs.
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast, FY 2016-2036, FAA
The Airbus A320 and Boeing 737NG and their engines will drive demand for MRO services.
Airbus delivered its first A350 in October 2015 and hoped to deliver its first A320neo by the end of 2015. Boeing rolled out the first 737 MAX in December 2015 and expects to complete the aircraft’s first flight in early 2016. OEMs, MRO providers and airlines prepare for major fleet modernization in the coming years.
Source: Fleet Modernization Big Factor in 2016 MRO Trends, Aviation Week
Director of Business Development at iBASEt